Nation-wide population register used to estimate forensic genetic genealogy match rates

Forensic investigative genetic genealogy (FIGG) is a technique in which DNA from an unknown individual — typically recovered at a crime scene or from unidentified remains — is searched against direct-to-consumer (DTC) genomic databases. Genetic relatives detected in those databases are then used as starting points for building family trees to suggest candidate identities. Despite high-profile successes in several countries, a rigorous, population-scale evaluation of how reliably the method can produce a usable match has been lacking.

A preprint posted on bioRxiv describes a systematic attempt to address this gap using Israel's national population register. By modelling the genetic relationships expected across a national population and cross-referencing with database participation rates, the authors estimate the proportion of FIGG cases in which at least one genetic relative would be detectable — the so-called match rate — at country scale. The analysis provides quantitative benchmarks for evaluating the real-world utility and limitations of FIGG as a forensic tool.

The findings are relevant to ongoing policy debates about DTC genomic database governance, law-enforcement access to genealogical data, and the privacy implications for individuals who have not themselves submitted DNA but whose relatives have. The work is a preprint and has not yet undergone peer review.